p, and I have Absolutely No Justification for Believing that p: The Incoherence of Bayesianism

Publication Type

Working Paper

Version

publishedVersion

Publication Date

10-2005

Abstract

Bayesianism tells a story about the epistemic trajectory of an ideally rational agent. The agent begins with a ‘prior’ probability function; thereafter, it conditionalizes on its evidence as it comes in. Consider, then, such an agent at the very beginning of its trajectory. It is ideally rational, but completely ignorant of which world is actual. Let us call this agent ‘superbaby’.1 We show that superbaby is committed to sincerely asserting propositions of the form [p and I am not justified in believing that p].

Discipline

Philosophy

Research Areas

Humanities

First Page

1

Last Page

30

Publisher

Singapore Management University, SMU Social Sciences and Humanities Working Paper Series, Paper No. 07-2005

City or Country

Singapore

Copyright Owner and License

Authors

Previous Versions

Aug 31 2010

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