Continuity, history, and identity: Why Bongbong Marcos won the 2022 Philippine Presidential Election
Publication Type
Journal Article
Version
submittedVersion
Publication Date
3-2023
Abstract
In May of 2022, Bongbong Marcos won a commanding 59 percent of the vote to become president of the Philippines. His victory was, on some level, shocking to scholars and analysts of Philippine politics. As a result, a plethora of different theories have been proposed, in an attempt to explain why Marcos won. In this paper, we use nationally representative survey data to explore which factors predict (and do not predict) voting intention for Marcos. We find that, a) support for former President Rodrigo Duterte, b) positive perceptions of the late President Ferdinand Marcos and martial law, and c) ethnic (linguistic) identity are strong predictors of voting for Bongbong Marcos. On the other hand, age, education, and income are not. Consequently, theories based on continuity, coalition, history, and identity provide the most leverage on the question of why Bongbong Marcos won the election.
Keywords
2022 Philippine elections, authoritarianism, democratization, ethnic voting, Ferdinand Marcos, historical memory, Philippines, Rodrigo Duterte
Discipline
Asian Studies | Political History | Political Science
Research Areas
Political Science
Publication
Pacific Affairs
Volume
96
Issue
1
First Page
85
Last Page
104
ISSN
0030-851X
Identifier
10.5509/202396185
Publisher
Pacific Affairs
Citation
DULAY, Dean C., HICKEN, Allen, MENON, Anil, & HOLMES, Ronald.(2023). Continuity, history, and identity: Why Bongbong Marcos won the 2022 Philippine Presidential Election. Pacific Affairs, 96(1), 85-104.
Available at: https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/soss_research/3744
Copyright Owner and License
Authors
Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-No Derivative Works 4.0 International License.
Additional URL
https://doi.org/10.5509/202396185