Publication Type
Journal Article
Version
acceptedVersion
Publication Date
1-2023
Abstract
The past few years have seen an emergence of populist leaders around the world, who have not only accrued but also maintained support despite rampant criticism, governance failures, and the ongoing COVID pandemic. The Philippines' Rodrigo Duterte is the best illustration of this trend, with approval ratings rarely dipping below 80 percent. What explains his high levels of robust public support? We argue that Duterte is an ethnopopulist who uses ethnic appeals in combination with insider vs. outsider rhetoric to garner and maintain public support. Moreover, we argue that ethnic affiliation is a main driver of support for Duterte, and more important than alternative factors such as age, education, gender, or urban vs. rural divides. We provide evidence of Duterte's marriage of ethnic and populist appeals, then evaluate whether ethnicity predicts support for Duterte, using 15 rounds of nationally representative public opinion data. Identifying with a non-Tagalog ethnicity (like Duterte) leads to an 8 percent increase in approval for Duterte, significantly larger than any other explanatory factor. Among Duterte supporters, a non-Tagalog ethnicity is associated with 19 percent increase in strong versus mild support. Ethnicity is the only positive and significant result, suggesting that it strongly explains why Duterte's support remains robust. Alternative explanations, such as social desirability bias and alternative policy considerations, do not explain our results.
Keywords
populism, ethnicity, Duterte, Philippines
Discipline
Asian Studies | Political Science | Social Influence and Political Communication
Research Areas
Political Science
Publication
Journal of East Asian Studies
Volume
22
Issue
3
First Page
525
Last Page
553
ISSN
1598-2408
Identifier
10.1017/jea.2022.29
Publisher
Cambridge University Press
Citation
DULAY, Dean C., HICKEN, Allen, & HOLMES, Ronald.(2023). The persistence of ethnopopulist support: The case of Rodrigo Duterte's Philippines. Journal of East Asian Studies, 22(3), 525-553.
Available at: https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/soss_research/3743
Copyright Owner and License
Authors
Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-No Derivative Works 4.0 International License.
Additional URL
https://doi.org/10.1017/jea.2022.29
Included in
Asian Studies Commons, Political Science Commons, Social Influence and Political Communication Commons