Publication Type

Journal Article

Version

publishedVersion

Publication Date

9-2020

Abstract

Is shale oil “revolutionizing” the global oil market and the geopolitics of oil? If so, how? While two aspects of the shale boom—a new source of supply and a cause for the price collapse in 2014–2015—dominate the conventional wisdom, I argue that the most revolutionary change is the least understood aspect of shale oil—shale oil producers’ rise as new swing suppliers due to its unique extraction technique and cost structure. Shale oil producers also differ from traditional swing producers in motives, contexts, and an amount of accessible excess capacity such that while shale oil lowers the medium-term price ceiling, it does not eliminate short-term price volatility. By examining the geopolitics of oil since the advent of shale oil, I analyze how such new market realities have or have not altered the US foreign policy on issues involving possible oil supply disruptions, Saudi Arabia's long-held special status in US grand strategy, rationale for US withdrawal from the Persian Gulf, and the foreign policy of China, the largest oil importer today, and Russia, a major petrostate.

Keywords

shale, shale oil, geopolitics, oil market, US foreign policy, Saudi Arabia, energy security

Discipline

Political Economy | Political Science

Research Areas

Political Science

Publication

International Studies Quarterly

Volume

64

Issue

3

First Page

544

Last Page

557

ISSN

0020-8833

Identifier

10.1093/isq/sqaa042

Publisher

Wiley

Copyright Owner and License

Authors

Additional URL

https://doi.org/10.1093/isq/sqaa042

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