Publication Type
Journal Article
Version
submittedVersion
Publication Date
5-2020
Abstract
To what extent are research results influenced by subjective decisions that scientists make as they design studies? Fifteen research teams independently designed studies to answer five original research questions related to moral judgments, negotiations, and implicit cognition. Participants from two separate large samples (total N > 15,000) were then randomly assigned to complete one version of each study. Effect sizes varied dramatically across different sets of materials designed to test the same hypothesis: materials from different teams rendered statistically significant effects in opposite directions for four out of five hypotheses, with the narrowest range in estimates being d = -0.37 to +0.26. Meta-analysis and a Bayesian perspective on the results revealed overall support for two hypotheses, and a lack of support for three hypotheses. Overall, practically none of the variability in effect sizes was attributable to the skill of the research team in designing materials, while considerable variability was attributable to the hypothesis being tested. In a forecasting survey, predictions of other scientists were significantly correlated with study results, both across and within hypotheses. Crowdsourced testing of research hypotheses helps reveal the true consistency of empirical support for a scientific claim.
Keywords
Crowdsourcing, scientific transparency, stimulus sampling, forecasting, conceptual replications, research robustness
Discipline
Psychology
Research Areas
Psychology
Publication
Psychological Bulletin
Volume
146
Issue
5
First Page
451
Last Page
479
ISSN
0033-2909
Identifier
10.1037/bul0000220
Publisher
American Psychological Association
Citation
LANDY, Justin F., JIA, Miaolei, DING, Isabel L., VIGANOLA, Domenico, TIERNEY, Warren, & HARTANTO, Andree.(2020). Crowdsourcing hypothesis tests: Making transparent how design choices shape research results. Psychological Bulletin, 146(5), 451-479.
Available at: https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/soss_research/3221
Copyright Owner and License
Authors
Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-No Derivative Works 4.0 International License.
Additional URL
https://doi.org/10.1037/bul0000220