Publication Type

Journal Article

Version

publishedVersion

Publication Date

11-2016

Abstract

This paper uses ‘Medieval’ drought conditions from the 12th Century to simulate the implications of severe and persistent drought for the future of water resource management in metropolitan Phoenix, one of the largest and fastest growing urban areas in the southwestern USA. WaterSim 5, an anticipatory water policy and planning model, was used to explore groundwater sustainability outcomes for mega-drought conditions across a range of policies, including population growth management, water conservation, water banking, direct reuse of RO reclaimed water, and water augmentation. Results revealed that business-as-usual population growth, per capita use trends, and management strategies are not sustainable over the long term, even without mega-drought conditions as years of available groundwater supply decline over the simulation period from 2000 to 2060. Adding mega-drought increases the decline in aquifer level and increases the variability in flows and uncertainty about future groundwater supplies. Simulations that combine drought management policies return the region to levels that are more sustainable. Results demonstrate the value of long-term planning and policy analysis for anticipating and adapting to environmental and societal change. Similar anticipatory exercises can be used to assess different suites of drought management policies in other cities facing uncertainty about future conditions.

Keywords

Decision making under uncertainty, (DMUU), Mega-drought, Scenario planning, Water resources management, Sustainable urban development, WaterSim 5

Discipline

Energy Policy | Political Science

Research Areas

Political Science

Publication

Sustainable Cities and Society

Volume

27

First Page

497

Last Page

504

ISSN

2210-6707

Identifier

10.1016/j.scs.2016.05.001

Publisher

Elsevier

Additional URL

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2016.05.001

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