Publication Type

Journal Article

Version

acceptedVersion

Publication Date

12-2017

Abstract

This paper explores the conceptualisation of «uncertainty» in late nineteenth- century meteorological thought. By investigating the story of meteorological forecasting in nineteenth and early twentieth century Hong Kong, it considers the changing ways in which forecasting was judged historically. In the early nineteenth century forecasting the weather was considered impossible. By the end of the century, it was confidently expected that the much improved understanding of weather patterns would lead to the ability to better predict them. During the intervening period «uncertainty» competed with «certainty» and «prediction» was mistaken for «predictability». The shift in perception was driven by various factors, including changing public perceptions of what science could achieve and pressure to accurately predict typhoons. Such concerns helped shape the course of meteorology globally from a series of subjective theories into an objective pragmatic science based on observational analysis. This article seeks to highlight the practices, places and experiences that contributed knowledge to the burgeoning field overseas whilst also connecting with others in this volume by considering the circumstances that contributed to changing perceptions of forecasting. In particular, it also explores how the qualification of weather phenomenon - in this case the typhoon - as «unpredictable» or «uncertain» opened the door to innovation and discovery.

Keywords

Forecasting, Meteorology, Typhoon, Uncertainty, Colonial Hong Kong

Discipline

Asian Studies | Geography | History

Research Areas

Sociology

Publication

Quaderni Storici

Volume

52

Issue

3

First Page

777

Last Page

802

ISSN

0301-6307

Identifier

10.1408/90449

Publisher

Particolare Da Hartmann Schedel

Copyright Owner and License

Authors

Additional URL

https://doi.org/10.1408/90449

Download

Share

COinS