Improving governance for the Post-2015 Sustainable Development Goals: Scenario forecasting the next 50 years
Publication Type
Journal Article
Version
acceptedVersion
Publication Date
6-2015
Abstract
Covering three fundamental governance transitions historically characteristic of modern states the provision of security, the building of capacity, and the deepening of inclusion we offer a pioneering forecast of the future of domestic governance through the year 2060 for 183 countries utilizing a long-term, dynamic, integrated global futures modeling system. While our Base Case forecast anticipates global gains in security, capacity, and inclusion, extended scenario analysis suggests that timely and effective interventions to strengthen governance and implement pro-poor development policies will result in much greater advances on the Post-2015 Sustainable Development Goals.
Keywords
conflict, democratization, forecasting, governance, state capacity, Sustainable Development Goals
Discipline
Political Science | Public Affairs, Public Policy and Public Administration
Research Areas
Political Science
Publication
World Development
Volume
70
First Page
286
Last Page
302
ISSN
0305-750X
Identifier
10.1016/j.worlddev.2015.01.013
Publisher
Elsevier
Citation
JOSHI, Devin K., HUGHES, Barry B., & SISK, Timothy D..(2015). Improving governance for the Post-2015 Sustainable Development Goals: Scenario forecasting the next 50 years. World Development, 70, 286-302.
Available at: https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/soss_research/1931
Copyright Owner and License
Authors
Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-No Derivative Works 4.0 International License.
Additional URL
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2015.01.013