Publication Type
Working Paper
Version
publishedVersion
Publication Date
12-2006
Abstract
This paper considers how electoral competition affects voters’ turnout and candidate choice. We do so via an instrumental-variable (IV) bivariate probit with selection which jointly estimates both processes. Our analysis controls for individual and election characteristics, campaigning, and election day weather. We focus on the effects of negative advertising (tone) and overall spending (intensity) on several aspects of voter behavior, including abstentions. Our findings: tone increases turnout of Independents only, and can strengthen partisanship among non-voters. Campaign intensity matters more than tone. Overall, there is evidence that Democrats, Independents and Republicans have different propensities to react to campaigning, which do not follow a straightforward pattern. We also show that failure to consider turnout in voter choices leads to erroneous conclusions.
First Page
1
Last Page
48
Publisher
SMU Economics and Statistics Working Paper Series, No. 27-2006
City or Country
Singapore
Citation
LANDI, Massimiliano and YIP, Chun Seng.
Campaign Tactics and Citizens' Electoral Decisions. (2006). 1-48.
Available at: https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/soe_research/944
Copyright Owner and License
Authors
Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-No Derivative Works 4.0 International License.