Publication Type
Journal Article
Version
publishedVersion
Publication Date
7-2026
Abstract
This paper studies occupational mobility over the business cycle. We divide occupations into two broad groups, “attractive” and “nonattractive”, where we label an occupation attractive if the total net inflow into this occupation through job-to-job transition is positive. We measure total net inflows into both occupation groups. We measure these inflows separately for job-to-job transitions and transitions from unemployment to employment. We find that the net inflow from nonattractive to attractive occupations through job-to-job transitions slows during recessions. The net inflow through transitions from unemployment has a similar cyclicality. This finding suggests a novel cost of recession: during recessions, workers have fewer opportunities to move to a better occupation.
Keywords
Occupational mobility, Business cycles, Worker flows
Discipline
Labor Economics
Research Areas
Applied Microeconomics
Publication
European Economic Review
Volume
187
First Page
1
Last Page
17
ISSN
0014-2921
Identifier
10.1016/j.euroecorev.2026.105348
Publisher
Elsevier
Citation
BAYDUR, Ismail and MUKOYAMA, Toshihiko.
Occupation ladders over the business cycle. (2026). European Economic Review. 187, 1-17.
Available at: https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/soe_research/2875
Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-No Derivative Works 4.0 International License.
Additional URL
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2026.105348