Connectivity and selective rural migration

Author

• Lin MA, Singapore Management UniversityFollow
• Yuan MEI, Singapore Management UniversityFollow
• Qunfeng WU, Peking University
• Mingzhi XU, Peking University

Publication Type

Journal Article

Version

publishedVersion

Publication Date

8-2026

Abstract

How does infrastructure shape rural development? Using household panel data from a nationally representative sample of Chinese villages, matched to high-resolution highway maps, we find that road expansion between 2000 and 2015 operates mainly through reallocation, with less productive farmers scaling down or exiting and more productive farmers remaining and expanding. We quantify the aggregate and distributional consequences in a dynamic spatial equilibrium model with heterogeneous households and endogenous migration. Improved connectivity not only accelerates urbanization but also increases aggregate rural output by 2.2%–5.3% in the long run, even as the rural workforce declines.

Keywords

transportation network, migration, agricultural productivity

Discipline

Agricultural and Resource Economics | Asian Studies | Transportation

Research Areas

Applied Microeconomics

Publication

International Economic Review

First Page

1

Last Page

25

ISSN

0020-6598

Identifier

10.1111/iere.70102

Publisher

Wiley

Citation

MA, Lin; MEI, Yuan; WU, Qunfeng; and XU, Mingzhi. Connectivity and selective rural migration. (2026). International Economic Review. 1-25.
Available at: https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/soe_research/2873

Copyright Owner and License

Authors

Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-Share Alike 4.0 International License.

Additional URL

https://doi.org/10.1111/iere.70102