Publication Type

Journal Article

Version

publishedVersion

Publication Date

12-2025

Abstract

This study investigates shrinkflation—the practice of reducing product size while maintaining or slightly changing prices—in the U.S. retail grocery market. We analyze a decade of retail scanner data to assess the prevalence and patterns of product size changes across various product categories. Our findings show that approximately 1.92% of products have been downsized. When comparing total sales, product downsizing is more than five times as prevalent as upsizing. Product downsizing typically occurs without a corresponding decrease in price and is widespread across product categories. Consequently, consumers end up paying more per unit volume. We further find that consumers are more responsive to price adjustments than to changes in product size. This finding suggests that reducing product sizes is an effective strategy for retailers and manufacturers to increase margins or respond to cost pressures, offering valuable implications for retailers and policymakers.

Keywords

shrinkflation, product downsizing, grocery retail, consumer prices, unit pricing, retail scanner data, consumer behavior, inflation, pricing strategy, market regulation

Discipline

Business Administration, Management, and Operations

Publication

Marketing Science

ISSN

0732-2399

Identifier

10.1287/mksc.2024.0948

Publisher

Institute for Operations Research and Management Sciences

Additional URL

https://doi.org/10.1287/mksc.2024.0948

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