Economic voting behavior: The peak-end growth rule
Publication Type
Journal Article
Publication Date
6-2024
Abstract
This paper introduces the peak-end rule to economic voting, finding that voters focus on peak and end economic growth when evaluating incumbents. Cross-national data from 595 elections in 70 countries (1960-2020) shows that the average of the highest GDP growth rate during the term and the growth rate in the election year positively impacts incumbent vote share, with peak growth having a stronger effect. Instrumental variable analysis addresses endogeneity. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that less-educated voters rely more on the peak-end rule. The findings contribute to understanding voters' behavioral patterns and improving democratic accountability.
Keywords
cross-national, economic voting, election, myopic, peak-end rule, voter rationality
Discipline
Political Economy | Social Influence and Political Communication
Publication
Economics and Politics
ISSN
0954-1985
Identifier
10.1111/ecpo.12299
Publisher
Wiley: 24 months
Citation
SHEN, Zekai; JIN, Yiyang; DONG, Yuanyuan; and LIU, Yazhou.
Economic voting behavior: The peak-end growth rule. (2024). Economics and Politics.
Available at: https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/soe_research/2755
Additional URL
https://doi.org/10.1111/ecpo.12299