Publication Type
Journal Article
Version
acceptedVersion
Publication Date
6-2020
Abstract
Deviance information criterion (DIC) has been widely used for Bayesian model comparison, especially after Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is used to estimate candidate models. This paper first studies the problem of using DIC to compare latent variable models when DIC is calculated from the conditional likelihood. In particular, it is shown that the conditional likelihood approach undermines theoretical underpinnings of DIC. A new version of DIC, namely DICL, is proposed to compare latent variable models. The large sample properties of DICL are studied. A frequentist justification of DICL is provided. Like AIC, DICL provides an asymptotically unbiased estimator to the expected Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence between the DGP and a predictive distribution. Some popular algorithms, such as the EM, Kalman and particle filtering algorithms, are introduced to compute DICL for latent variable models. Moreover, this paper studies the problem of using DIC to compare misspecified models. A new version of DIC, namely DICM, is proposed and it can be regarded as a Bayesian version of TIC. A frequentist justification of DICM is provided under misspecification. DICL and DICM are illustrated using asset pricing models and stochastic volatility models. (C) 2019 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Keywords
AIC, DIC, Latent variable models, Misspecified models, Markov Chain Monte Carlo
Discipline
Econometrics
Research Areas
Econometrics
Publication
Journal of Econometrics
Volume
216
Issue
2
First Page
450
Last Page
493
ISSN
0304-4076
Identifier
10.1016/j.jeconom.2019.11.002
Publisher
Elsevier: 24 months
Citation
LI, Yong; Jun YU; and ZENG, Tao.
Deviance information criterion for latent variable models and misspecified models. (2020). Journal of Econometrics. 216, (2), 450-493.
Available at: https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/soe_research/2383
Copyright Owner and License
Authors
Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-No Derivative Works 4.0 International License.
Additional URL
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2019.11.002