Publication Type
Working Paper
Version
publishedVersion
Publication Date
9-2016
Abstract
It is costly to collect the household- and individual-level data that underlies official estimates of poverty and health. For this reason, developing countries often do not have the budget to update their estimates of poverty and health regularly, even though these estimates are most needed there. One way to reduce the financial burden is to substitute some of the real data with predicted data. An approach referred to as double sampling collects the expensive outcome variable for a sub-sample only while collecting the covariates used for prediction for the full sample. The objective of this study is to determine if this would indeed allow for realizing meaningful reductions in financial costs while preserving statistical precision. The study does this using analytical calculations that allow for considering a wide range of parameter values that are plausible to real applications. The benefits of using double sampling are found to be modest. There are circumstances for which the gains can be more substantial, but the study conjectures that these denote the exceptions rather than the rule. The recommendation is to rely on real data whenever there is a need for new data, and use the prediction estimator to leverage existing data.
Keywords
Prediction, Double sampling, Survey costs, Poverty
Discipline
Income Distribution | Public Economics
Research Areas
Applied Microeconomics
Issue
7841
First Page
1
Last Page
43
Publisher
World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 7841
City or Country
Washington, DC
Embargo Period
9-30-2019
Citation
FUJII, Tomoki and VAN DER WEIDE, Roy.
Is Predicted Data a Viable Alternative to Real Data?. (2016). 1-43.
Available at: https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/soe_research/2295
Copyright Owner and License
Authors
Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-No Derivative Works 4.0 International License.
Additional URL
https://ssrn.com/abstract_id=2848469
Comments
Published in World Bank Economic Review, forthcoming (2019)