Publication Type

Conference Proceeding Article

Version

publishedVersion

Publication Date

4-2022

Abstract

Deep learning has been actively studied for time series forecasting, and the mainstream paradigm is based on the end-to-end training of neural network architectures, ranging from classical LSTM/RNNs to more recent TCNs and Transformers. Motivated by the recent success of representation learning in computer vision and natural language processing, we argue that a more promising paradigm for time series forecasting, is to first learn disentangled feature representations, followed by a simple regression fine-tuning step – we justify such a paradigm from a causal perspective. Following this principle, we propose a new time series representation learning framework for long sequence time series forecasting named CoST, which applies contrastive learning methods to learn disentangled seasonal-trend representations. CoST comprises both time domain and frequency domain contrastive losses to learn discriminative trend and seasonal representations, respectively. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets show that CoST consistently outperforms the state-of-the-art methods by a considerable margin, achieving a 21.3% improvement in MSE on multivariate benchmarks. It is also robust to various choices of backbone encoders, as well as downstream regressors.

Keywords

Self-supervised learning, Forecasting, Representation learning, Time series

Discipline

Databases and Information Systems

Research Areas

Data Science and Engineering

Publication

Proceedings of the 10th Conference on Learning Representations (ICLR), Virtual, 2022 April 25-29

City or Country

Online

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