Publication Type

Journal Article

Version

publishedVersion

Publication Date

5-2022

Abstract

The COVID-19 epidemic has swept the world for over two years. However, a large number of infectious asymptomatic COVID-19 cases (ACCs) are still making the breaking up of the transmission chains very difficult. Efforts by epidemiological researchers in many countries have thrown light on the clinical features of ACCs, but there is still a lack of practical approaches to detect ACCs so as to help contain the pandemic. To address the issue of ACCs, this paper presents a neural network model called Spatio-Temporal Episodic Memory for COVID-19 (STEM-COVID) to identify ACCs from contact tracing data. Based on the fusion Adaptive Resonance Theory (ART), the model encodes a collective spatio-temporal episodic memory of individuals and incorporates an effective mechanism of parallel searches for ACCs. Specifically, the episodic traces of the identified positive cases are used to map out the episodic traces of suspected ACCs using a weighted evidence pooling method. To evaluate the efficacy of STEM-COVID, a realistic agent-based simulation model for COVID-19 spreading is implemented based on the recent epidemiological findings on ACCs. The experiments based on rigorous simulation scenarios, manifesting the current situation of COVID-19 spread, show that the STEM-COVID model with weighted evidence pooling has a higher level of accuracy and efficiency for identifying ACCs when compared with several baselines. Moreover, the model displays strong robustness against noisy data and different ACC proportions, which partially reflects the effect of breakthrough infections after vaccination on the virus transmission.

Keywords

Asymptomatic coronavirus carriers, ART-based spatio-temporal episodic memory, Weighted evidence pooling, COVID-19 simulation, Realistic scenarios

Discipline

Public Health | Software Engineering

Research Areas

Software and Cyber-Physical Systems

Publication

Neural Computing and Applications

Volume

34

Issue

17

First Page

14859

Last Page

14879

ISSN

0941-0643

Identifier

10.1007/s00521-022-07210-8

Publisher

Springer (part of Springer Nature): Springer Open Choice Hybrid Journals

Copyright Owner and License

Authors

Additional URL

https://doi.org/10.1007/s00521-022-07210-8

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