Publication Type
Conference Proceeding Article
Version
acceptedVersion
Publication Date
11-2017
Abstract
It is often necessary to estimate the probability of certain events occurring in a system. For instance, knowing the probability of events triggering a shutdown sequence allows us to estimate the availability of the system. One approach is to run the system multiple times and then construct a probabilistic model to estimate the probability. When the probability of the event to be estimated is low, many system runs are necessary in order to generate an accurate estimation. For complex cyber-physical systems, each system run is costly and time-consuming, and thus it is important to reduce the number of system runs while providing accurate estimation. In this work, we assume that the user can actively tune the initial configuration of the system before the system runs and answer the following research question: how should the user set the initial configuration so that a better estimation can be learned with fewer system runs. The proposed approach has been implemented and evaluated with a set of benchmark models, random generated models, and a real-world water treatment system.
Keywords
Embedded systems, Formal methods, Software engineering, Water treatment
Discipline
Software Engineering
Research Areas
Software and Cyber-Physical Systems
Publication
Formal Methods and Software Engineering: 19th International Conference on Formal Engineering Methods, ICFEM 2017, Xi'an, China, November 13-17: Proceedings
Volume
10610
First Page
379
Last Page
395
ISBN
9783319686899
Identifier
10.1007/978-3-319-68690-5_23
Publisher
Springer
City or Country
Cham
Citation
WANG, Jingyi; CHEN, Xiaohong; SUN, Jun; and QIN, Shengchao.
Improving probability estimation through active probabilistic model learning. (2017). Formal Methods and Software Engineering: 19th International Conference on Formal Engineering Methods, ICFEM 2017, Xi'an, China, November 13-17: Proceedings. 10610, 379-395.
Available at: https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/sis_research/4708
Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-No Derivative Works 4.0 International License.
Additional URL
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-68690-5_23