Publication Type

Journal Article

Version

acceptedVersion

Publication Date

1-2026

Abstract

Policy uncertainty can undermine the power of government subsidies to stimulate environmentally friendly research and development. We show that Chinese firms’ green R&D falls as the uncertainty of environmental subsidies rises: Exogenous, weather-driven air pollution variability induces subsidies to fluctuate, and firms in areas with high weather-driven subsidy variability undertake less green R&D and hire fewer technical employees, controlling for the average level of subsidies. Heavy emitters and environmental technology firms are more affected. The results also illustrate how policy uncertainty can arise when policymakers are influenced by conditions that are salient but with causes that are difficult to disentangle.

Keywords

Climate Finance, Corporate Investment, Environmental Economics, Irreversible Investment, Policy Uncertainty, R&D

Discipline

Environmental Sciences | Finance and Financial Management | Technology and Innovation

Research Areas

Finance

Publication

Journal of Financial Economics

Volume

175

First Page

1

Last Page

14

ISSN

0304-405X

Identifier

10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104189

Publisher

Elsevier

Copyright Owner and License

Authors

Additional URL

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104189

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