Publication Type
Journal Article
Version
submittedVersion
Publication Date
11-2020
Abstract
The present research sought to examine the impact of narcissism, prediction accuracy, and should counterfactual thinking—which includes thoughts such as “I should have done something different”—on hindsight bias (the tendency to exaggerate in hindsight what one knew in foresight) and perceived learning. To test these effects, we conducted four studies (total n = 727). First, in Study 1 we examined a moderated mediation model, in which should counterfactual thinking mediates the relation between narcissism and hindsight bias, and this mediation is moderated by prediction accuracy such that the relationship is negative when predictions are accurate and positive when predictions are inaccurate after accurate predictions. Second, in Study 2 we examined a moderated sequential mediation model, in which the relation between narcissism and perceived learning is sequentially mediated through should counterfactual thinking and hindsight bias, and importantly, this sequential mediation is moderated by prediction accuracy. In Study 3 we ruled out could counterfactual thinking as an alternative explanation for the relationship between narcissism and hindsight bias. Finally, by manipulating should counterfactual thinking in Study 4, our findings suggest that this type of thinking has a causal effect on hindsight bias. We discuss why exhibiting some hindsight bias can be positive after failure. We also discuss implications for eliciting should counterfactual thinking. Our results help explain why narcissists may fail to learn from their experiences.
Keywords
decision making, hindsight bias, learning, narcissism, prediction accuracy, should counterfactual thinking
Discipline
Applied Behavior Analysis | Human Resources Management | Organizational Behavior and Theory
Research Areas
Organisational Behaviour and Human Resources
Publication
Journal of Management
Volume
46
Issue
8
First Page
1498
Last Page
1528
ISSN
0149-2063
Identifier
10.1177/0149206320929421
Publisher
SAGE Publications (UK and US)
Citation
HOWES, Satoris S.; KAUSEL, Edgar E.; JACKSON, Alexander T.; and REB, Jochen.
When and why narcissists exhibit greater hindsight bias and less perceived learning. (2020). Journal of Management. 46, (8), 1498-1528.
Available at: https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/lkcsb_research/6577
Copyright Owner and License
Authors
Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-No Derivative Works 4.0 International License.
Additional URL
https://doi.org/10.1177/0149206320929421
Included in
Applied Behavior Analysis Commons, Human Resources Management Commons, Organizational Behavior and Theory Commons