Publication Type

Journal Article

Version

submittedVersion

Publication Date

4-2019

Abstract

Event studies of market efficiency measure an earnings surprise with the consensuserror (CE), defined as earnings minus the average of professional forecasts. Even if asubset of forecasts can be biased, the ideal but difficult to estimate parameter-dependentalternative to CE is a nonlinear filter of individual errors that adjusts for bias. We showthat CE is a poor parameter-free approximation for this ideal measure. The fractionof misses on the same side (FOM), by discarding the magnitude of misses, offers a farbetterapproximation. FOM performs particularly well against CE in predicting thereturns of US stocks, where bias is potentially large, than that of international stocks.

Keywords

Financial analysts, stock recommendations, fraction of missess

Discipline

Finance | Finance and Financial Management

Research Areas

Finance

Publication

Journal of Finance

Volume

74

Issue

2

First Page

943

Last Page

983

ISSN

0022-1082

Identifier

10.1111/jofi.12746

Publisher

Wiley: No OnlineOpen

Copyright Owner and License

Authors

Additional URL

https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.12746

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