Publication Type

Journal Article

Version

publishedVersion

Publication Date

8-2015

Abstract

Reproducibility is a defining feature of science, but the extent to which it characterizes current research is unknown. We conducted replications of 100 experimental and correlational studies published in three psychology journals using high-powered designs and original materials when available. Replication effects were half the magnitude of original effects, representing a substantial decline. Ninety-seven percent of original studies had statistically significant results. Thirty-six percent of replications had statistically significant results; 47% of original effect sizes were in the 95% confidence interval of the replication effect size; 39% of effects were subjectively rated to have replicated the original result; and if no bias in original results is assumed, combining original and replication results left 68% with statistically significant effects. Correlational tests suggest that replication success was better predicted by the strength of original evidence than by characteristics of the original and replication teams.

Keywords

empirical analysis, error analysis, innovation, meta-analysis, psychology, research method, confidence interval, correlational study, prediction, reproducibility, sampling, selection bias, social psychology

Discipline

Management Sciences and Quantitative Methods | Psychology

Research Areas

Marketing

Publication

Science

Volume

349

Issue

6251

First Page

943

Last Page

950

ISSN

0036-8075

Identifier

10.1126/science.aac4716

Publisher

American Association for the Advancement of Science

Copyright Owner and License

Authors

Additional URL

https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aac4716

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