Economic Leading Indicators for Tracking Singapore's Growth Cycle

Publication Type

Journal Article

Publication Date

1995

Abstract

This paper attempts to develop a set of economic leading indicators which can be used for monitoring the growth cycle of Singapore. A time series approach based on the construction of cross correlation functions is used to check that individual series presage activity over the growth cycle. Due to the counter-cyclical pattern exhibited by the output of the construction sector (GDPC), the latter is treated separately from the value-added of the rest of the economy (GDPNC). ultimately, five series are found to exhibit good leading behaviour over GDPC. We obtain substantial gain over pure time series models when using these indicators in economic forecasting.

Keywords

economic indicators, Singapore, construction industry, gross domestic product

Discipline

Asian Studies | Economics | Growth and Development

Research Areas

Econometrics

Publication

Asian Economic Journal

Volume

9

Issue

2

First Page

177

Last Page

186

ISSN

1351-3958

Identifier

10.1111/j.1467-8381.1995.tb00030.x

Publisher

Wiley

Additional URL

https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8381.1995.tb00030.x

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