Publication Type

Journal Article

Version

publishedVersion

Publication Date

7-2020

Abstract

We propose a decomposition of the realized covariance matrix into components based on the signs of the underlying high-frequency returns, and we derive the asymptotic properties of the resulting realized semicovariance measures as the sampling interval goes to zero. The first-order asymptotic results highlight how the same-sign and mixed-sign components load differently on economic information related to stochastic correlation and jumps. The second-order asymptotic results reveal the structure underlying the same-sign semicovariances, as manifested in the form of co-drifting and dynamic “leverage” effects. In line with this anatomy, we use data on a large cross-section of individual stocks to empirically document distinct dynamic dependencies in the different realized semicovariance components. We show that the accuracy of portfolio return variance forecasts may be significantly improved by exploiting the information in realized semicovariances.

Keywords

High-frequency data, realized variances, semicovariances, co-jumps, volatility forecasting

Discipline

Econometrics

Research Areas

Econometrics

Publication

Econometrica

Volume

88

Issue

4

First Page

1515

Last Page

1551

ISSN

0012-9682

Identifier

10.3982/ECTA17056

Publisher

Econometric Society

Copyright Owner and License

Publisher

Additional URL

https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA17056

Included in

Econometrics Commons

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