Publication Type
Journal Article
Version
submittedVersion
Publication Date
2-2011
Abstract
A recursive test procedure is suggested that provides a mechanism for testing explosive behavior, date stamping the origination and collapse of economic exuberance, and providing valid confidence intervals for explosive growth rates. The method involves the recursive implementation of a right-side unit root test and a sup test, both of which are easy to use in practical applications, and some new limit theory for mildly explosive processes. The test procedure is shown to have discriminatory power in detecting periodically collapsing bubbles, thereby overcoming a weakness in earlier applications of unit root tests for economic bubbles. An empirical application to the Nasdaq stock price index in the 1990s provides confirmation of explosiveness and date stamps the origination of financial exuberance to mid-1995, prior to the famous remark in December 1996 by Alan Greenspan about irrational exuberance in the financial market, thereby giving the remark empirical content.
Discipline
Econometrics | Finance | Finance and Financial Management | International Economics
Research Areas
Econometrics
Publication
International Economic Review
Volume
52
Issue
1
First Page
201
Last Page
226
ISSN
0020-6598
Identifier
10.1111/j.1468-2354.2010.00625.x
Publisher
Wiley
Citation
PHILLIPS, Peter C. B.; WU, Yangru; and YU, Jun.
Explosive Behavior in the 1990s Nasdaq: When Did Exuberance Escalate Asset Values?. (2011). International Economic Review. 52, (1), 201-226.
Available at: https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/soe_research/1265
Copyright Owner and License
Authors
Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-No Derivative Works 4.0 International License.
Additional URL
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-2354.2010.00625.x
Included in
Econometrics Commons, Finance Commons, Finance and Financial Management Commons, International Economics Commons