Publication Type

Journal Article

Version

publishedVersion

Publication Date

1-2026

Abstract

Maritime disruption planning requires joint strategic storage and transport capacity decisions under uncertainty. We develop a two-stage stochastic multi-commodity network-design model for national energy security that integrates corridor commitments, port--commodity inventories, storage expansion, and scenario-dependent routing for crude oil, LNG, LPG, and fertilizer. The formulation incorporates decision-dependent probabilities, corridor concentration limits, and mean--CVaR risk, admitting an exact MILP reformulation. In a data-anchored India-inspired case study, stochastic modeling outperforms the expected-value policy by 1.35%, with decision-dependent probabilities worth 0.67%. Service levels are heterogeneous: crude and fertilizer maintain full coverage, while LNG and LPG drop to 34.6% and 33.3% under worst-case scenarios. Storage expansion adds 1,775 capacity units across seven port--commodity pairs and reduces active corridor commitments. Sensitivity analyses demonstrate that dependence alters economic exposure while preserving policy optimality, though cost stresses modify first-stage decisions with a maximum regret of 1.1673%.

Keywords

Maritime energy security, Stochastic network design, Decision-dependent uncertainty, CVaR, Chokepoint disruptions, Strategic inventory

Discipline

Operations and Supply Chain Management | Operations Research, Systems Engineering and Industrial Engineering

Research Areas

Intelligent Systems and Optimization

Areas of Excellence

Sustainability

Publication

Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review

First Page

1

Last Page

44

ISSN

1366-5545

Identifier

10.1016/j.tre.2026.105296

Publisher

Elsevier

Additional URL

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tre.2026.105296

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