Subjective Probability and its Measurement

Publication Type

Journal Article

Publication Date

1973

Abstract

Subjective probability is defined and its place in decision analysis, with special reference to business problems, is identified. The literature on its measurement is critically analysed both for the single decision-maker and group. The use of direct fractile assessment and the Delphi Technique are felt to be some of the more tenable of the methods reviewed. An account of some of the behavioural aspects of decision-making with a résumé of the "risky" shift theories is included and their implications are discussed. Some practical guidelines and suggestions for further research are indicated.

Discipline

Business | Management Sciences and Quantitative Methods

Research Areas

Strategy and Organisation

Publication

Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A (General)

Volume

136

Issue

1

First Page

21

Last Page

42

ISSN

0035-9238

Identifier

10.2307/2344419

Publisher

Royal Statistical Society

Additional URL

https://doi.org/10.2307/2344419

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