The Debiasing of Forecasts in Research and Development

Publication Type

Journal Article

Publication Date

6-1971

Abstract

A possible way to improve the accuracy of forecasts is to estimate (and subsequently remove) any systematic bias by reference to the bias found in similar forecasts in the past. This paper discusses the applicability to industrial R & D of a method proposed by Summers for debiasing estimates of the costs of military projects by means of a regression equation derived from past experience, and gives the results of applying a similar method to estimates of costs, sales, product prices, and return factors for ten industrial development projects.

Discipline

Business | Strategic Management Policy | Technology and Innovation

Research Areas

Strategy and Organisation

Publication

R&D Management

Volume

1

Issue

3

First Page

119

Last Page

123

ISSN

0033-6807

Identifier

10.1111/j.1467-9310.1971.tb00069.x

Publisher

Wiley

Additional URL

https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9310.1971.tb00069.x

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