A New Methodology for Studying Intraday Dynamics of Nikkei Index Futures Using Markov Chains

Publication Type

Journal Article

Publication Date

1999

Abstract

The empirical study of intraday patterns of stock trading volatilities and bid-ask spreads in the literature depends on assumptions of specific price generating process and may therefore not be robust to distributional assumptions. By creating discrete states that conform more naturally to the way prices are actually quoted in the derivatives and assets markets, we employ a new methodology of Markov chains for studying the intraday dynamics of derivative prices. We apply the method to study the intraday behavior of the Nikkei index futures prices, trading volumes, and spreads. We find some interesting results such as higher probabilities of transitions between larger volatilities at the opening and closing times. The volatility at lunch break is strikingly low. Contrary to most of the literature, the Nikkei intraday bid-ask spread does not show a U-shaped pattern. We offer some explanations.

Keywords

Markov chains, Intraday patterns, Nikkei index, Derivatives

Discipline

Business

Research Areas

Finance

Publication

Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money

Volume

9

Issue

3

First Page

247

Last Page

265

ISSN

1042-4431

Identifier

10.1016/s1042-4431(99)00010-4

Publisher

Elsevier

Link to Full Text

Share

COinS