An Initial and Repeat Purchase Logit Model for Multi-Generation Technological Product Markets

Publication Type

Conference Proceeding Article

Publication Date

1999

Abstract

Most new product adoption models have focused on single-generation products. Only recently have researchers begun to focus on the importance of analyzing the consumers' purchase demand in multigeneration products. This paper proposes a model that incorporates both initial and repeat purchases, and allows for leap-hogging behavior in multi-generation technological product markets. Whereas most new product adoption models are based on aggregate market sales, the proposed model is estimated and validated on individual purchase data. Within a logistical modeling framework, our model combines purchase incidence (buy/not buy) component and brand (or "generation") choice components for each time period. These model components allow for individual heterogeneity. Purchase probabilities for buyers are captured as a function of purchase history, buyer expectations of future generations, and preferences of the currently available options.The proposed model is quite parsimonious. It requires relatively simple data for estimation. It is empirically tested using individual-level purchase data from an illustrative pilot study in the multigeneration personal computer market. The model fits and explains the individual purchase behavior reasonably well.

Keywords

logit modeling, purchase behavior, computing, information technology

Discipline

Marketing | Technology and Innovation

Research Areas

Marketing

Publication

Proceedings of the 32nd Annual Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences: January 5-8, 1999, Maui, Hawaii

First Page

1008

Last Page

1019

ISBN

9780769500010

Identifier

10.1109/HICSS.1999.772661

Publisher

IEEE

City or Country

Maui, HI, USA

Link to Full Text

Share

COinS