Publication Type

Conference Paper

Version

acceptedVersion

Publication Date

7-2008

Abstract

We find the disparity between long-term and short-term analyst forecasted earnings growth is a robust predictor of future returns and revisions in long-term forecasted earnings growth. After adjusting for industry characteristics, stocks whose long-term earnings growth forecasts are far above or far below their implied short-term forecasts for earnings growth have negative and positive subsequent risk-adjusted returns, respectively. Despite the importance of conditioning on short-term forecasted earnings growth, these returns are not driven by earnings momentum. Instead, consistent with investors having limited attention, predictable revisions in long-term analyst forecasts appear to induce return predictability.

Keywords

Analyst Forecasts, Return Predictability

Discipline

Finance and Financial Management | Portfolio and Security Analysis

Research Areas

Finance

Publication

Nippon Finance Association International Conference, Yokohama, July 2008

Last Page

35

City or Country

Yokohama, Japan

Comments

Also presented at FMA 2010

Additional URL

https://ssrn.com/abstract=1336821

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