Publication Type

Journal Article

Version

Postprint

Publication Date

6-2015

Abstract

Covering three fundamental governance transitions historically characteristic of modern states the provision of security, the building of capacity, and the deepening of inclusion we offer a pioneering forecast of the future of domestic governance through the year 2060 for 183 countries utilizing a long-term, dynamic, integrated global futures modeling system. While our Base Case forecast anticipates global gains in security, capacity, and inclusion, extended scenario analysis suggests that timely and effective interventions to strengthen governance and implement pro-poor development policies will result in much greater advances on the Post-2015 Sustainable Development Goals.

Keywords

conflict, democratization, forecasting, governance, state capacity, Sustainable Development Goals

Discipline

Political Science | Public Affairs, Public Policy and Public Administration

Research Areas

Political Science

Publication

World Development

Volume

70

First Page

286

Last Page

302

ISSN

0305-750X

Identifier

10.1016/j.worlddev.2015.01.013

Publisher

Elsevier

Copyright Owner and License

Authors

Creative Commons License

Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-No Derivative Works 4.0 License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-No Derivative Works 4.0 License.

Additional URL

http://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2015.01.013

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