Title

Predictive Densities for the Lognormal Distribution and Their Applications

Publication Type

Journal Article

Publication Date

2000

Abstract

Maximum likelihood predictive densities (MLPDs) for a future lognormal observation are obtained and their applications to reliability and life testing are considered. When applied to reliability and failure rate estimations, they give estimators that can be much less biased and less variable than the usual maximum likelihood estimations (MLEs) obtained by replacing the unknown parameters in the density function by their MLEs. When applied to lifetime predictions, they give prediction intervals that are shorter than the usual frequentist intervals. Using the MLPDs, it is also rather convenient to construct the shortest prediction intervals. Extensive simulations are performed for comparisons. A numerical example is given for illustration.

Discipline

Economics

Research Areas

Econometrics

Publication

Microelectronics Reliability

Volume

40

Issue

6

First Page

1051

Last Page

1059

ISSN

0026-2714

Identifier

10.1016/s0026-2714(99)00253-x

Additional URL

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s0026-2714(99)00253-x

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