Publication Type

Working Paper

Publication Date

7-2007

Abstract

Recent theoretical work has revealed a direct connection between asset return volatility forecastability and asset return sign forecastability. This suggests that the pervasive volatility forecastability in equity returns could, via induced sign forecastability, be used to produce direction-of change forecasts useful for market timing. We attempt to do so in an international sample of developed equity markets, with some success, as assessed by formal probability forecast scoring rules such as the Brier score. An important ingredient is our conditioning not only on conditional mean and variance information, but also conditional skewness and kurtosis information, when forming direction-of-change forecasts.

Keywords

Volatility, variance, skewness, kurtosis, market timing, asset management, asset allocation, portfolio management

Discipline

Econometrics | Finance

Research Areas

Econometrics

First Page

1

Last Page

31

Publisher

Singapore Management University School of Economics, Paper No 15-2007

City or Country

Singapore

Copyright Owner and License

Authors

Creative Commons License

Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-No Derivative Works 4.0 License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-No Derivative Works 4.0 License.

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