Title

On Divergent Dynamics with Ordinary Least Squares Learning

Publication Type

Journal Article

Publication Date

1-2015

Abstract

This article addresses the stability properties of a simple economy (characterized by a one-dimensional state variable) when the representative agent, confronted by trajectories that are divergent from the steady state, performs transformations in that variable in order to improve forecasts. We find that instability continues to be a robust outcome for transformations such as differencing and detrending the data, the two most typical approaches in econometrics to handle nonstationary time series data. We also find that inverting the data, a transformation that can be motivated by the agent reversing the time direction in an attempt to improve her forecasts, may lead the dynamics to a perfect-foresight path.

Keywords

Temporary equilibrium, Ordinary least squares learning, Stability

Discipline

Economics | Economic Theory

Research Areas

Economic Theory

Publication

Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization

Volume

109

First Page

1

Last Page

9

ISSN

0167-2681

Identifier

10.1016/j.jebo.2014.10.003

Publisher

Elsevier

Additional URL

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2014.10.003