Modeling Country Risks: An Asian Perspective

Publication Type

Conference Paper

Publication Date



This paper investigates the use of the Markov Regime Switching Model (MRSM) as a means to track changes in the levels of investor confidence. It also assesses the probabilities of a country switching between different regimes using the transition probability matrix. A maximum of three possible levels or regimes of risk – low, intermediate and high volatility regimes, is considered. From the smoothed probabilities calculated for different regimes, this paper makes inferences about timings of debt crisis. Comparing Brazil, Mexico, the Philippines and Indonesia in particular, we date the onset and subsequent dissolution of crisis-induced panic. We give interpretations of the results based on evidences of debt crisis. The objective is to investigate if there is information in the transition probability matrix and smoothed probabilities that country risk managers can use to make assessment on risk condition.


Debt crisis, Country risk assessment, Markov regime switching model


Asian Studies | Econometrics | Finance

Research Areas

International Economics


Singapore Economic Review Conference: The Future of Asian Financial Systems: Integration, Growth, and Stability

Creative Commons License

Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-No Derivative Works 4.0 License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-No Derivative Works 4.0 License.

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