Title

PROBES: a framework for probability elicitation from experts.

Publication Type

Conference Proceeding Article

Publication Date

11-1999

Abstract

A decision analytic model represents uncertainties as probability distributions. These distributions are hard to assess especially for large and dynamic models. We propose an integrated framework that facilitates elicitation of the relevant probability distributions for dynamic decision models from the domain experts. The experts usually use some judgmental heuristics to aid probability assessments; the resulting distributions may be proned to cognitive biases. Our framework aims to minimize the effects of these biases and to improve the quality of decisions made. We have implemented a prototype system of the framework and evaluated its effectiveness via a case study in the follow-up management of colorectal cancer patients after curative surgery. Preliminary results demonstrate the practical promise of the framework.

Keywords

Colorectal tumor, Computer program, Decision support system, Evaluation, Human, Probability, Recurrent disease

Discipline

Numerical Analysis and Scientific Computing

Research Areas

Data Management and Analytics

Publication

Transforming Health Care Through Informnatics: Cornerstones for a New Information Management Paradigm - Proceedings AMIA' 99 ANNUAL SYMPOSIUMs

Volume

SYMPOSIUM SUPPLEMENT 1999

First Page

301

Last Page

305

ISBN

1560533714

Publisher

Hanley & Belfus, Inc.

City or Country

USA

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