PROBES: a framework for probability elicitation from experts.
Conference Proceeding Article
A decision analytic model represents uncertainties as probability distributions. These distributions are hard to assess especially for large and dynamic models. We propose an integrated framework that facilitates elicitation of the relevant probability distributions for dynamic decision models from the domain experts. The experts usually use some judgmental heuristics to aid probability assessments; the resulting distributions may be proned to cognitive biases. Our framework aims to minimize the effects of these biases and to improve the quality of decisions made. We have implemented a prototype system of the framework and evaluated its effectiveness via a case study in the follow-up management of colorectal cancer patients after curative surgery. Preliminary results demonstrate the practical promise of the framework.
Colorectal tumor, Computer program, Decision support system, Evaluation, Human, Probability, Recurrent disease
Numerical Analysis and Scientific Computing
Data Management and Analytics
Transforming Health Care Through Informnatics: Cornerstones for a New Information Management Paradigm - Proceedings AMIA' 99 ANNUAL SYMPOSIUMs
SYMPOSIUM SUPPLEMENT 1999
Hanley & Belfus, Inc.
City or Country
Lau, A.H. and Tze-Yun LEONG.
PROBES: a framework for probability elicitation from experts.. (1999). Transforming Health Care Through Informnatics: Cornerstones for a New Information Management Paradigm - Proceedings AMIA' 99 ANNUAL SYMPOSIUMs. SYMPOSIUM SUPPLEMENT 1999, 301-305. Research Collection School Of Information Systems.
Available at: http://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/sis_research/3036