International yield curve prediction with common functional principal component analysis
We propose an international yield curve predictive model, where common factors are identified using the common functional principal component (CFPC) method that enables a comparison of the variation patterns across different economies with heterogeneous covariances. The dynamics of the international yield curves are further forecasted based on the data-driven common factors in an autoregression framework. For the 1-day ahead out-of-sample forecasts of the US, Sterling, Euro and Japanese yield curve from 07 April 2014 to 06 April 2015, the CFPC factor model is compared with an alternative factor model based on the functional principal component analysis.
Yield curve forecasting, Common factors
Econometrics | Finance
Robustness in Econometrics
Vladik Kreinovich; Songsak Sriboonchitta; Van-Nam Huynh
ZHANG, Jiejie; CHEN, Ying; KLOTZ, Stefan; and LIM, Kian Guan.
International yield curve prediction with common functional principal component analysis. (2017). Robustness in Econometrics. 692, 287-304. Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business.
Available at: http://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/lkcsb_research/5342
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