The decision analysis approach to problem solving is widely documented. A range of articles and books have considered ways for analysing problems under uncertainty and also methods for formalising an individual's attitude towards risk in terms of cardinal utility measures. In order to carry out such analyses the uncertainty in any problem has to be explicitly quantified in probabilistic terms. The present article reviews procedures for assessing probabilities and proposes practical guidelines indicating those methods which, in the authors' opinion, are most fruitful for executives to use.
Strategy and Organisation
Omega-International Journal of Management
Moore, P. G. and Thomas, Howard.
Measuring uncertainty. (1975). Omega-International Journal of Management. 3, (6), 657-672. Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business.
Available at: http://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/lkcsb_research/3960