Subjective Probability and its Measurement
Subjective probability is defined and its place in decision analysis, with special reference to business problems, is identified. The literature on its measurement is critically analysed both for the single decision-maker and group. The use of direct fractile assessment and the Delphi Technique are felt to be some of the more tenable of the methods reviewed. An account of some of the behavioural aspects of decision-making with a résumé of the "risky" shift theories is included and their implications are discussed. Some practical guidelines and suggestions for further research are indicated.
Business | Management Sciences and Quantitative Methods
Strategy and Organisation
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A (General)
Royal Statistical Society
Hampton, J. M.; Moore, P. G.; and THOMAS, Howard.
Subjective Probability and its Measurement. (1973). Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A (General). 136, (1), 21-42. Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business.
Available at: http://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/lkcsb_research/3935