Title

The Disparity Between Long-Term and Short-Term Forecasted Earnings Growth

Publication Type

Journal Article

Publication Date

2011

Abstract

We find the disparity between long-term and short-term analyst forecasted earnings growth is a robust predictor of future returns and long-term analyst forecast errors. After adjusting for industry characteristics, stocks whose long-term earnings growth forecasts are far above or far below their implied short-term forecasts for earnings growth have negative and positive subsequent risk-adjusted returns along with downward and upward revisions in long-term forecasted earnings growth, respectively. Additional results indicate that investor inattention toward firm-level changes in long-term earnings growth is responsible for these risk-adjusted returns.

Keywords

Analyst forecasts, Return predictability

Discipline

Finance and Financial Management | Portfolio and Security Analysis

Research Areas

Finance

Publication

Journal of Financial Economics

Volume

100

Issue

2

First Page

424

Last Page

442

ISSN

0304-405X

Identifier

10.1016/j.jfineco.2010.10.015

Publisher

Elsevier