We report that trends defined by the sign of quarterly earnings surprises predict returns. This finding indicates that trends in firm-level fundamentals bias investor expectations. Specifically, the underreaction of investors to trends is consistent with the gambler’s fallacy in Rabin (2002). The return predictability of trends is not attributable to the magnitude of earnings surprises. Instead, trends explain more than half of the post-earnings announcement drift in our sample.
Trends, Earnings Surprises, Underreaction
Finance and Financial Management | Portfolio and Security Analysis
Asian Finance Association International Conference, Brisbane, 30 June - 3 July 2009
City or Country
LOH, Roger and WARACHKA, Mitchell Craig.
Return Predictability and Trends. (2009). Asian Finance Association International Conference, Brisbane, 30 June - 3 July 2009. 1-36. Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business.
Available at: http://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/lkcsb_research/1793