Title

A Variance Decomposition Analysis of the Information in the Term Structure

Publication Type

Journal Article

Publication Date

3-1997

Abstract

Based on a market efficiency assumption, we use variance decomposition analysis is to separate information in the term structure on expected future spot rates from information on time-varying term premia and to examine the market's ability to forecast both future rate changes and excess returns on long versus short securities. We find that fluctuations in the slope of the yield curve are due more to changing term premia than to fluctuations in expected future spot rates and that the market correctly predicts about 40 percent of the month-to-month changes in spot rates, a considerably higher percentage than that found by previous studies.

Discipline

Business | Finance and Financial Management

Research Areas

Finance

Publication

Journal of Financial Research

Volume

20

Issue

1

First Page

71

Last Page

91

ISSN

0270-2592

Identifier

10.1111/j.1475-6803.1997.tb00237.x

Publisher

Wiley

Additional URL

http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-6803.1997.tb00237.x